Is Italian party politics doomed?

    Only a few days remain until a watershed event that could completely reshuffle the cards in Italian party politics. The political survival of Matteo Renzi appears to depend on the confirmation of the constitutional amendments in the national referendum expected on December 4th.

The question at stake is crucial because Mr. Renzi’s political future is directly tied to it. Not only was the constitutional reform promoted by his Democratic Party-led government, but Mr. Renzi has also been championing it personally for the past three years, both seizing the spotlight and dominating the main political debates. The resulting degree of personalization implies that, in the event of a failure—that is, a "No" vote victory—he would be forced to resign immediately, or, at best, attempt to continue only after securing broad agreements with other major forces in Italian party politics, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia being the primary target, according to current rumors. 

The reform focuses on the second part of the Italian Republican Constitution, the one establishing the balance of institutional power. It proposes a redefinition of the respective powers between the central authority of the state and the peripheral power of the regions by reducing the number of competing jurisdictions. The goal is to resolve the significant conflicts regarding the allocation of powers that have plagued the Italian legal and political system over the past decades, especially since the 2001 Title V reform. Concurrently, the reform seeks to abolish "perfect bicameralism" by transforming the Senate into a true upper house, consistent with other established parliamentary democracies.

The personalization of voting behavior by Mr. Renzi has been a chief characteristic of the referendum campaign. For some time, he decided to link his own political destiny to the outcome of the upcoming referendum. However, in doing so, he made a mistake, as he later implicitly conceded. Conversely, had he not personalized the vote, all his political rivals surely would have. The opposition front encompasses a wide range of political forces, stretching from the extreme right to the extreme left. It includes Matteo Salvini’s Northern League, Mr. Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, and Beppe Grillo’s 5 Star Movement, as well as some former Democratic Party members and other smaller groups on his left. Nevertheless, taking a look at survey data, it appears that, among all these forces, Mr. Grillo will likely be Mr. Renzi’s main nemesis in the near future.

Prominent economic and financial newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the Financial Times (FT) have been endorsing Mr. Renzi’s constitutional reform, and have warned that a negative outcome would make foreign investors significantly less inclined to invest in the Italian economy. Markets would receive similarly negative signals. All things considered, a "No" vote success would prove Italy’s inherent handicap in adopting the necessary reforms to overcome decades of political and economic crisis. Moreover, beyond the catastrophic scenarios regarding Italy’s economic performance, what further troubles some analysts are the political ripple effects a "No" vote would bring about. Since the core interest of Mr. Renzi’s political antagonists will be to survive what the WSJ has dubbed a "constitutional reckoning". Mr. Berlusconi could be tempted to support a short-lived, broad coalition based on a conventio ad excludendum: an agreement on the electoral law designed to keep the Five Star Movement (M5S) out of power. The main point of contention would be a revision to the majority bonus that currently grants the winning party list a wide majority of seats in Parliament. If this scenario materializes, we would witness a period of less than eighteen months before a new electoral campaign begins.

Nevertheless, as previously mentioned, this latest phase of political stagnation would most likely strengthen Mr. Grillo’s political party. Not only would its core constituency significantly solidify, but it could also lure many citizens who are now sick and tired of political inefficiency. The M5S MPs would likely lean on anti-establishment rhetoric, emphasizing evidence of a political plot designed to undermine them. The M5S is a byproduct, if not the very essence, of the current political era—an era distinguished by a collapse in voter turnout and a crisis of traditional political parties. As the number of party members has plummeted over the past decades, traditional parties have been increasingly perceived as being colluded with state institutions and exploiting their resources, consistent with Richard Katz and Peter Mair's influential concept of the 'cartel party'. It is undoubtedly true that if this is the forthcoming political battlefield, the M5S would likely gain the upper hand in the next general elections.

All in all, the issue at stake is clear. It must be acknowledged that Mr. Grillo’s major achievement is having catalyzed social anger, 'encapsulated' it, and thus prevented what, in times of political and economic crisis, could have resulted in social chaos and disorder. To be optimistic, the M5S might succeed in bringing large segments of Italian society back from political indifference. However, its main shortcoming is its inability to develop a clear political and economic agenda aimed at resolving the serious problems that continue to plague the Italian political system. Mr. Renzi’s challenge is therefore vital not just for him but for the entire nation. It is not merely about a constitutional reform that, if confirmed, will bring both benefits and disadvantages to the legal and political system, ultimately resulting in offsetting effects. Rather, it concerns the very destiny of the Italian political system. It speaks to its ability to express a consensual, legitimate leadership after decades of political weakness and/or consociationalism—the root causes of economic stagnation and the impoverishment of the middle class. Ultimately, the challenge has to do with the system's capacity to finally convey a message of stability.