Only a few days remain until a watershed event that could completely reshuffle the cards in Italian party politics. The political survival of Matteo Renzi appears to depend on the confirmation of the constitutional amendments in the national referendum expected on December 4th.
The question at stake is crucial because Mr. Renzi’s political future is directly tied to it. Not only was the constitutional reform promoted by his Democratic Party-led government, but Mr. Renzi has also been championing it personally for the past three years, both seizing the spotlight and dominating the main political debates. The resulting degree of personalization implies that, in the event of a failure—that is, a "No" vote victory—he would be forced to resign immediately, or, at best, attempt to continue only after securing broad agreements with other major forces in Italian party politics, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia being the primary target, according to current rumors.
